Integrated numerical analysis of the vertical displacements and fracturing related to groundwater extraction in the vicinity of Mexico city

Abstract

An integrated numerical analysis of the groundwater flow and geomechanical equations for land subsidence due to groundwater extraction is presented for unconfined and confined pyroclastic aquifer scenarios; in the last case, a hydrodynamic fracturing analysis is additionally conducted. An analytical solution for one of the integrals was developed and incorporated into the numerical model to analyze the stress distribution and displacements due to groundwater extraction. A study area with problems of land subsidence and fracturing was selected for the analysis; this area is located in the northeastern part of Mexico City, and comprises a Pleistocene volcanic cone, known as the Peñón El Marqués, and surrounding former lacustrine plains, where Mexico City is built. In this area, the distribution and physical characteristics of fractures were identified in both, the unconfined and confined aquifer. Most of these fractures formed about 1.5 to 2 decades after a well field of nine wells started operation (Peñón well field). Historical evolution of land elevation, volumes of groundwater extraction, and hydraulic and geomechanical parameters were incorporated into the numerical model for a sensitivity analysis to get the best fit between observed and modeled results. Results show that an average of 527 L/s groundwater extraction in the well system, for about 40 years, have lead to a drawdown of 35 m in the hydraulic head of the pyroclastic aquifer, causing a land subsidence of six meters in the confined aquifer area and of eight meters in the unconfined aquifer area. The more sensitive parameters to land subsidence, in order of importance, were the consolidation coefficient (Cv), the transmisivity (T) and the shear modulus (G), whereas the hydraulic conductivity (K) of the confined aquifer was the more sensitive parameter for the critical time estimation for fracturing. Obtained results indicate that the critical pumping rate in the volcanic aquifer, between 420 L/s and 470 L/s, was exceeded since the begining of the well field operation, which caused the mechanical failure of the underground materials for confining conditions. We also found that the vertical ground deformation with time cannot be reproduced in the numerical simulations with one set of parameters; two sets of parameters were needed to obtain a best fit, one for the 1960–1984 period, and another one for the 1985–1998. Numerical simulations predict a total land subsidence of ten meters by the year 2025, two additional meters for the confined aquifer and four additional meters for the unconfined aquifer.